AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from August 21, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 19, 2025 — +26.7% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 18 days.
The thesis — published August 21, 2025
Shares fell after a small Q2 sales miss, so the price looks very beaten down. Yet big investors still hold it, and an independent model gives it a strong 88 percent growth score, hinting the long-term story is intact. Over the next 0-3 months, consider buying in steps near the lower end of its recent range and only add if the price clearly turns upward, aiming for a bounce as ad budgets steady and product results improve return on ad spend.
Primary drivers
- A small Q2 sales miss triggered the recent slide in the share price
- Favored by big funds tracked by Goldman Sachs, supporting steady demand
- Independent model gives an 88 percent growth score for the business
- Price looks washed out, which can set up a short-term rebound
How it played out
APP: target reached in 18 days
Lyra published APP at $418.43 on 2025-08-21 with a short-term thesis for 30% growth. The thesis pointed to a small Q2 sales miss that had pulled the shares down, continued support from large funds, an independent 88 percent growth score, and a washed-out price that could rebound if ad budgets steadied and product results improved return on ad spend.
Inside the window, APP reached the $543.95 target in 18 days. The stock later peaked at $745.61 on 2025-09-29, a 78.2% gain. By 2025-11-19, it ended at $530.05. The thesis played out clearly.
What happened during the window
On September 5, 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices said AppLovin would join the S&P 500 on September 22, 2025. In November 2025, Investor's Business Daily reported that AppLovin posted better-than-expected Q3 2025 results and gave Q4 guidance above analyst expectations.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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