Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 18, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$287.96 Published $313.81 Target $298.07 Window close $320.80 Peak
$279.72 – $284.63Entry zone — fair-value band
$287.96Published — price the day we called it
$313.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$320.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$298.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 82 days.

Peak price
$320.80
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+11.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$298.07
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
82
Window
August 20, 2025 – November 18, 2025

The thesis — published August 20, 2025

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$313.81
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$279.72 – $284.63
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$287.96
published August 20, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JPM looks like a strong bank whose price may have fallen too far and could rebound. Talk of buying the Apple Card accounts could quickly make its card business bigger. A third-party model rates the company very highly, backing the long-term story. In a slightly positive market, buying near the lower end of its recent range can offer a good trade-off if the trend starts to turn up. Keep an eye on interest rates and rule changes.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks beaten down, which often snaps back toward typical levels
  • Possible Apple Card deal could quickly grow the credit card business
  • Independent screen gives a strong 93% score for overall business quality
  • Top-tier bank with steady profits plus regular buybacks and dividends

How it played out

JPM: target reached in 82 days

Lyra published JPM on 2025-08-20 at 287.96. The thesis expected 10% growth and pointed to a beaten-down price, a possible Apple Card account deal, a strong 93% outside business-quality score, and the bank's profits, buybacks, and dividends. The target was 313.81.

Inside the window, JPM reached the target. It peaked at 320.8 on 2025-11-12, with an 11.4% gain, and reached the target in 82 days. By 2025-11-18, it had eased to 298.07. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, JPMorgan reported third-quarter results, including earnings of 5.07 per share and revenue of 46.43 billion. On 2025-10-21, the company opened its new 60-story global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in New York City.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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