Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 20, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 18, 2025 — +3.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$279.72 – $284.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$287.96Published — price the day we called it

$313.81Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$320.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$298.07Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 82 days.

At window close

+3.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$298.07

last close inside the window, ended November 18, 2025

Peak price

$320.80

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published August 20, 2025

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$313.81

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$279.72 – $284.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$287.96

published August 20, 2025

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

JPM looks like a strong bank whose price may have fallen too far and could rebound. Talk of buying the Apple Card accounts could quickly make its card business bigger. A third-party model rates the company very highly, backing the long-term story. In a slightly positive market, buying near the lower end of its recent range can offer a good trade-off if the trend starts to turn up. Keep an eye on interest rates and rule changes.

Primary drivers

Price looks beaten down, which often snaps back toward typical levels
Possible Apple Card deal could quickly grow the credit card business
Independent screen gives a strong 93% score for overall business quality
Top-tier bank with steady profits plus regular buybacks and dividends

How it played out

JPM: target reached in 82 days

Lyra published JPM on 2025-08-20 at 287.96. The thesis expected 10% growth and pointed to a beaten-down price, a possible Apple Card account deal, a strong 93% outside business-quality score, and the bank's profits, buybacks, and dividends. The target was 313.81.

Inside the window, JPM reached the target. It peaked at 320.8 on 2025-11-12, with an 11.4% gain, and reached the target in 82 days. By 2025-11-18, it had eased to 298.07. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, JPMorgan reported third-quarter results, including earnings of 5.07 per share and revenue of 46.43 billion. On 2025-10-21, the company opened its new 60-story global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in New York City.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All JPM signals