Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 19, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 17, 2025 — +3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$282.66 – $286.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$288.29Published — price the day we called it

$319.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$320.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$299.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$299.02

last close inside the window, ended November 17, 2025

Peak price

$320.80

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published August 19, 2025

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$319.88

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$282.66 – $286.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$288.29

published August 19, 2025

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

JPM is a strong, well-known bank that looks beaten down and ready to recover. Signs show sellers are tired, and we are watching for a clear turn upward to confirm it. A new ETF called JOYT shows fresh product ideas, and data-driven ratings are favorable. If the market stays reasonably positive and more banks keep firming up, buying in steps could capture a 0-3 month move back toward recent average price levels.

Primary drivers

Signals suggest the stock was pushed down too far in the recent period
New ETF launch (JOYT) signals active product development at the firm
Independent, data-based rankings view JPM favorably compared with peers
Wait for clear signs that price momentum is turning upward before adding shares

How it played out

JPM: price topped the target inside the window

Lyra published JPM on 2025-08-19 at 288.29 with 12% expected growth and a 319.88 target. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked pushed down too far, a possible turn in momentum, the JOYT ETF launch, and favorable independent, data-based rankings versus peers.

Inside the window, JPM rose to a 320.8 peak on 2025-11-12, above the 319.88 target. The peak gain was 11.3%. The ledger did not record a target day. By 2025-11-17, it ended at 299.02. The thesis mostly played out, but the full expected growth was not shown in the recorded peak gain.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-13, JPMorgan Chase announced a Security and Resiliency Initiative focused on sectors it described as critical to U.S. interests. On 2025-10-14, JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter results, including higher profit and revenue than the prior year period.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All JPM signals