Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 19, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 17, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 43 days.
The thesis — published August 19, 2025
TSMC is a strong company whose stock has dipped. It dominates making chips used for AI, giving it a big edge as demand grows. Investor mood is very positive, and both its technology and finances look solid. Recent news confirmed it handles most AI chip production. With orders and AI spending plans staying clear, the pullback could set up a rebound in the next 0-3 months once the price settles.
Primary drivers
- Leads the world in making AI chips for many major customers today
- Recent pullback may offer a better price to start a position
- Business strength and investor confidence both look very strong
- Clear AI spending plans from clients point to steady, rising demand
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 43 days
Lyra published TSM at $237.20 on 2025-08-19 with 22% expected growth and a $287.70 target. The thesis pointed to TSMC's lead in chips used for artificial intelligence, a recent pullback, strong business quality, positive investor mood, and clear spending plans from clients.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 43 days. It peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 30.9% peak gain. By 2025-11-17, it ended at $281.25. The thesis played out on the measured terms. It reached the target, then finished below that target but still above the publication price.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of $14.77 billion. The company also guided fourth-quarter revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion. These were company-reported results during the measurement window, not stated here as the cause of the stock move.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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