Track record · closed signal

Arm Holdings plc (ARM) — closed signal from August 18, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$140.09 Published $179.32 Target $139.77 Window close $183.16 Peak
$138.00 – $142.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$140.09Published — price the day we called it
$179.32Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$183.16Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$139.77Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 57 days.

Peak price
$183.16
peak on October 27, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+30.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$139.77
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
57
Window
August 18, 2025 – November 16, 2025

The thesis — published August 18, 2025

Predicted growth
+28%
over the measurement window
Target price
$179.32
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$138.00 – $142.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$140.09
published August 18, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ARM looks ready for a short-term bounce after a sharp pullback at this top chip-design business. Market mood is very positive, but trend signs still lean down, so buying in small steps makes sense. Recent news showed Nvidia uses ARM designs, underscoring its importance. In the next 3 months, royalties may trail unit growth, but a return toward recent norms could be attractive.

Primary drivers

  • ARM designs power chips for AI, so rising AI use can lift sales and fees
  • Recent pullback may have gone too far, setting up a short-term rebound
  • Nvidia uses ARM in parts of its lineup, keeping ARM strategically important
  • Each new device sold can add high-margin royalty income as volumes scale

How it played out

ARM: target reached in 57 days

Lyra published ARM at 140.09 on 2025-08-18 with a short-term thesis for 28% growth. The target was 179.32. The thesis pointed to a sharp pullback, a possible rebound, artificial-intelligence-related chip demand, Nvidia's use of ARM designs, and high-margin royalty income from new devices.

Inside the window, ARM reached a peak of 183.16 on 2025-10-27. That was above the target, with a peak gain of 30.7%. The target was reached in 57 days. By 2025-11-16, it ended at 139.77. The thesis played out on the target, even though the closing price gave the move back.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, MarketWatch reported that Arm had announced second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.14 billion, with royalty revenue of $620 million and licensing revenue of $515 million. The article also said Arm forecast third-quarter revenue of $1.225 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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