AppLovin Corporation (APP) — closed signal from August 18, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 23 days.
The thesis — published August 18, 2025
AppLovin is strong in both business results and investor interest. Last quarter, sales rose 77% and adjusted profit nearly doubled, lifting expectations. A major bank again named it a Top Pick with a $500 goal. The recent average price is rising and lots more people are buying than usual, pointing to steady demand. As web ads spread to more places, the potential customer base grows, which could keep estimates climbing over the next 3 months.
Primary drivers
- Sales up 77% and adjusted profit up 99%, showing strong business momentum
- Major firm named it a Top Pick and set a $500 goal, boosting attention
- Recent average price is rising and lots more people are buying than usual
- Web ad growth expands its potential customer base, adding room to grow
How it played out
APP: target reached in 23 days
Lyra published APP on 2025-08-18 at $437.92. The thesis expected 30% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to sales up 77%, adjusted profit up 99%, a major firm naming it a Top Pick with a $500 goal, rising recent average price, heavier buying than usual, and web ad growth as a larger customer base.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $569.30 target in 23 days. It later peaked at $745.61 on 2025-09-29, a 70.3% gain. By 2025-11-16, it ended at $557.70. The thesis played out, although the close was below the target.
What happened during the window
On September 5, 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices said AppLovin would join the S&P 500 on September 22, 2025. On November 5, 2025, AppLovin reported third-quarter results, including $2.45 per share and $1.41 billion in revenue, according to Investor's Business Daily.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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