Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 18, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 16, 2025 — +18.6% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 45 days.
The thesis — published August 18, 2025
TSMC looks like a good buy-the-dip in a top maker of AI chips. A recent pullback hints at short-term fatigue, yet investor mood stays upbeat after a major bank kept its positive rating. Reports see AI sales growing about 45 percent a year from 2025, showing strong long-term demand. While one price signal is negative, buying small on dips and adding if price firms up could help as factory use improves soon.
Primary drivers
- Rising need for chips used in AI points to steady orders from big clients
- Recent pullback may be temporary, with more buyers stepping in than sellers
- AI sales expected to grow about 45 percent each year starting in 2025
- Major analysts keep favorable ratings, supporting confidence in shares
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 45 days
Lyra published TSM as a short-term buy-the-dip idea on 2025-08-18 at 239.43. The thesis expected 22 percent growth. It pointed to rising demand for chips used in artificial intelligence, a pullback that might be temporary, artificial intelligence sales expected to grow about 45 percent each year starting in 2025, and favorable analyst ratings.
Inside the window, TSM reached the 290.40 target in 45 days. The peak was 310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 29.7 percent gain. It ended the window at 284.05. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and said net income was $14.77 billion. On the same date, the company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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