Track record · closed signal

Adobe Inc. (ADBE) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ADBE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$386.88 Published $456.52 Target $359.42 Window close $392.58 Peak
$380.00 – $390.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$386.88Published — price the day we called it
$456.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$392.58Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$359.42Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 8% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$392.58
peak on July 1, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+1.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$359.42
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
July 1, 2025 – September 29, 2025

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$456.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$380.00 – $390.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$386.88
published July 1, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Adobe's share price has slid back to the same range it first climbed past in January and now costs about 17% less than its usual price-to-earnings level, partly because the CEO sold some stock and made investors nervous. At the same time, early demand for the new Firefly AI add-on is beating company goals and will get more attention at a big investor meeting in September. Trading data already shows more buyers returning, so a move up toward $460-470 over the next few months looks realistic.

Primary drivers

  • Strong demand for Firefly AI add-ons is raising average revenue per Creative Cloud user
  • Several past price levels cluster near $385, giving the stock a sturdy lower limit
  • Market quickly shrugged off the CEO sale and mood toward Adobe is still very upbeat
  • September investor meeting may reveal concrete plans for turning Firefly AI into steady sales

How it played out

ADBE: the target was not reached

Lyra published ADBE at 386.88 on 2025-07-01 for a short-term window ending 2025-09-29. The thesis expected 18% growth toward 456.52. It pointed to demand for Firefly artificial intelligence add-ons, price support near 385, a quick fade in concern after the CEO stock sale, and a September investor meeting that might show clearer plans for Firefly sales.

The stock peaked at 392.58 on 2025-07-01, a 1.5% gain. That was still below the 456.52 target. It never got there. By 2025-09-29, ADBE ended at 359.42. The published thesis missed inside this window.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-11, Adobe reported fiscal Q3 results for the quarter ended 2025-08-29. The company reported adjusted earnings of 5.31 per share on 5.99 billion in revenue, and said artificial-intelligence-influenced annualized recurring revenue surpassed 5 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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