Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from August 5, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 3, 2026 — -4.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$424.48 Published $508.01 Target $404.80 Window close $487.47 Peak
$402.82 – $417.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$424.48Published — price the day we called it
$508.01Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$487.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$404.80Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 74% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-4.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-1.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$404.80
last close inside the window, ended November 3, 2026
Peak price
$487.47
peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 5, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$508.01
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$402.82 – $417.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$424.48
published August 5, 2026
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC looks well positioned to benefit from strong demand for advanced chips used in AI and data centers. Recent news that production capacity may come online sooner improves near-term sales visibility. The company shows steady profits and a solid balance sheet. Geopolitical risks in Taiwan and a broader chip sell-off are the main dangers.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for advanced chips used in AI and high-performance computing
  • Earlier production ramp adds near-term revenue clarity
  • Reliable earnings and healthy profit margins
  • Strong balance sheet and market leadership in chip manufacturing

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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