Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from August 4, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 2, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$413.97 Published $487.17 Target $398.63 Window close $487.47 Peak
$395.86 – $407.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$413.97Published — price the day we called it
$487.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$487.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$398.63Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 99% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+17.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-2.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$398.63
last close inside the window, ended November 2, 2026
Peak price
$487.47
peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 4, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$487.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$395.86 – $407.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$413.97
published August 4, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is well positioned for short-term AI-related chip demand because it leads in advanced chip manufacturing, keeps healthy profit margins, delivers steady results, and has a solid balance sheet. Recent industry reports show strong demand but also big recent losses and price weakness, so timing from a pullback looks more prudent.

Primary drivers

  • Top-level chipmaking capacity aligned with AI demand
  • Strong profits and consistent earnings delivery
  • Healthy balance sheet that helps through cycles
  • High sector swings and geopolitical risk affect timing

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals