Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from August 3, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 1, 2026 — -18.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.22 Published $9.36 Target $6.73 Window close $8.47 Peak
$7.66 – $8.05Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.22Published — price the day we called it
$9.36Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$6.73Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-18.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
-0%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$6.73
last close inside the window, ended November 1, 2026
Peak price
$8.47
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 3, 2026

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.36
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.66 – $8.05
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.22
published August 3, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados looks cheap and could benefit if consumer spending improves. The company expects stronger earnings this year and has an upcoming Investor Day that could make the plan clearer. However, heavy debt, slim profit margins, exposure to local currencies, and very low trading activity make the case fragile; $7.80-$8.20 is a cautious entry range.

Primary drivers

  • Earnings are improving, which supports a consumer recovery story
  • Investor Day may explain the company's strategy and priorities
  • Large McDonald's franchise brings brand reach and cost advantages
  • High debt, currency swings, and thin profits limit resilience

How it played out

ARCO: the 15% growth thesis missed

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 15% growth from $8.22. The thesis pointed to improving earnings, better consumer spending, the upcoming Investor Day, and the reach and cost advantages of the McDonald's franchise. It also flagged debt, currency swings, thin profits, and low trading activity as risks.

The shares peaked at $8.47 on August 5, a gain of 3.1%. They stayed below the $9.36 target throughout the window. ARCO ended the period at $6.73 on November 1, below both the publication price and the stated entry zone. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 13, Arcos Dorados reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, up 14.3% from the prior year, and net income of $45.0 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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