Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from July 31, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 29, 2026 — -8.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$266.89 Published $293.58 Target $243.79 Window close $287.20 Peak
$240.00 – $252.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$266.89Published — price the day we called it
$293.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$243.79Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 76% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-8.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+7.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$243.79
last close inside the window, ended October 29, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 31, 2026

Predicted growth
+10%
over the measurement window
Target price
$293.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$240.00 – $252.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$266.89
published July 31, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AWS demand is picking up and more customers are using Bedrock, which should help cloud profits in the near term. At the same time the company plans much higher spending on infrastructure, which raises questions about execution and returns. Shares jumped after earnings and sentiment is weak, so a drop before a clearer uptrend looks preferable.

Primary drivers

  • Faster AWS revenue and wider cloud profits
  • More companies adopting Bedrock expands AI demand
  • Commerce and ads bring steady cash from different sources
  • Big infrastructure spending raises execution and return risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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