Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 28, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 26, 2026 — +35.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$393.31 Published $460.17 Target $532.60 Window close $551.15 Peak
$382.00 – $395.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$393.31Published — price the day we called it
$460.17Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$551.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$532.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

At window close
+35.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+40.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$532.60
last close inside the window, ended October 26, 2026
Peak price
$551.15
peak on October 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
3

The thesis — published July 28, 2026

Predicted growth
+17%
over the measurement window
Target price
$460.17
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$382.00 – $395.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$393.31
published July 28, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft mixes steady demand for cloud services and productivity software with strong profit margins and reliable earnings. The stock sits close to its short-term trend and shows improving buying activity. A recent pullback in tech, led by chips, raises near-term valuation risk, but if company demand for enterprise AI stays strong, the next 0-3 months could look more constructive.

Primary drivers

  • Growing demand for Azure and enterprise AI services driving revenue
  • Subscription software sales provide steady, high-margin income
  • Reliable earnings delivery that supports confidence in forecasts
  • Holding up better than some peers during chip-led weakness in tech

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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