Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from July 27, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2026 — -1.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.23 Published $9.05 Target $8.09 Window close $8.47 Peak
$7.85 – $8.24Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.23Published — price the day we called it
$9.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 26% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-1.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+2.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$8.09
last close inside the window, ended October 25, 2026
Peak price
$8.47
peak on August 5, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.05
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.85 – $8.24
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.23
published July 27, 2026
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados benefits from growing restaurant sales, a low valuation, and an upcoming Investor Day that could provide clearer news. However, profits are thin, debt is high, exchange-rate swings matter, and trading is light, so there is limited confidence that everything will go perfectly.

Primary drivers

  • Expansion and stronger sales across Latin American restaurants
  • Benefits from McDonald's large brand recognition and scale
  • Investor Day could give near-term clarity and news flow
  • Earnings could improve if restaurant sales lift margins

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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