Track record · closed signal

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — closed signal from July 27, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 25, 2026 — +34.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MSFT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$389.29 Published $451.57 Target $524.51 Window close $551.15 Peak
$378.00 – $392.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$389.29Published — price the day we called it
$451.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$551.15Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$524.51Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 3 days.

At window close
+34.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+41.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$524.51
last close inside the window, ended October 25, 2026
Peak price
$551.15
peak on October 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
3

The thesis — published July 27, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$451.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$378.00 – $392.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$389.29
published July 27, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Microsoft combines steady cloud and AI demand, strong profit margins, and repeated earnings beats with a valuation cheaper than many AI-focused peers. Recent news about companies spending more on data-center capacity supports cloud growth but also means higher capital spending and possible margin pressure. Price action near short-term support suggests a cautious rebound is more likely than chasing a sharp post-earnings move.

Primary drivers

  • Growing Azure and enterprise AI use driving cloud revenue
  • High-margin software that brings regular subscription income
  • Reliable history of meeting or beating earnings expectations
  • More data-center spending supports capacity for cloud growth

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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