Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from July 21, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 19, 2026 — +1.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$395.86 – $413.76Entry zone — fair-value band

$415.12Published — price the day we called it

$488.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$487.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$420.22Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 97% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+1.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+17.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$420.22

last close inside the window, ended October 19, 2026

Peak price

$487.47

peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 21, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$488.52

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$395.86 – $413.76

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$415.12

published July 21, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is the top chip maker for advanced and specialty chips, benefiting from strong AI demand, high profitability and solid cash. Reports about planned price changes for 2027 could help protect profits from rising costs. The stock could bounce from oversold levels, but weak price action, a rich valuation, customer pushback and Taiwan risks suggest cautious expectations over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Leader in the most advanced chip-making technology and strong AI demand
High profit margins and a strong cash position
Regularly beats profit expectations, showing execution
Planned future price changes that could help protect profits

How it played out

TSM: 17.4% peak gain fell short of the target

Lyra published the TSM signal on July 21, 2026, at $415.12. It expected 18% growth over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chip manufacturing, strong demand for artificial intelligence, high profit margins, solid cash, a record of beating profit expectations, and planned price changes to protect profits. It also noted weak price action, a rich valuation, customer pushback, and Taiwan risks.

Inside the window, TSM reached a peak of $487.47 on October 5, 2026, for a 17.4% peak gain. That stayed below the $488.52 target, so the target was never reached. The stock ended the window at $420.22. The thesis partially played out, but it missed its stated objective.

What happened during the window

On October 8, 2026, TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier. On October 15, it reported third-quarter revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion and net income of NT$763.06 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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