Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from July 20, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 18, 2026 — +1.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$387.90 – $404.81Entry zone — fair-value band

$405.80Published — price the day we called it

$477.56Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$487.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$412.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

At window close

+1.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$412.61

last close inside the window, ended October 18, 2026

Peak price

$487.47

peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published July 20, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$477.56

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$387.90 – $404.81

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$405.80

published July 20, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC benefits from strong demand for advanced chips, high profit margins, and solid cash that lets it invest in more factory capacity. Shares have fallen a lot, so a rebound is possible but not yet confirmed because selling pressure is still strong. The expanded Arizona build makes the business more geographically diverse. Short-term upside looks reasonable but geopolitical risks and recent heavy selling lower conviction.

Primary drivers

Scale in advanced chip making taps big demand for AI and high-performance computing
Healthy profit margins and cash give flexibility to fund big factory builds
Arizona expansion spreads production risk across regions and customers
Recently oversold price could rebound, but strong selling still casts doubt

How it played out

TSM: target reached in 77 days

On July 20, Lyra published a short-term thesis for an 18% rise from 405.80. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips and high-performance computing, healthy margins and cash for factory investment, broader production through the Arizona expansion, and the chance of a rebound after heavy selling.

TSM reached 487.47 on October 5, above the 477.56 target. The peak gain was 20.1%, and the target was reached in 77 days. The price then fell and ended the window at 412.61 on October 18. The published thesis played out within the measurement window, although the gain did not hold through the end.

What happened during the window

On October 8, TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier. On October 15, it reported third-quarter revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion and net income of NT$763.06 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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