Track record · closed signal

ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML) — closed signal from July 15, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 13, 2026 — -3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ASML price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$1,784.02 Published $1,906.42 Target $1,717.76 Window close $1,896.35 Peak
$1,730.49 – $1,785.35Entry zone — fair-value band
$1,784.02Published — price the day we called it
$1,906.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$1,896.35Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$1,717.76Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-3.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$1,717.76
last close inside the window, ended October 13, 2026
Peak price
$1,896.35
peak on August 17, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+7%
over the measurement window
Target price
$1,906.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$1,730.49 – $1,785.35
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$1,784.02
published July 15, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

ASML makes the machines that chip companies need for the newest and older chips. Profits are healthy and the company has cash, while demand tied to AI is supporting sales. Recent results beat expectations and management raised its 2026 sales forecast, which is a short-term positive. Still, the stock trades at a high price, faces policy-related export limits, and momentum and limited near-term upside likely cap returns over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • Raised sales outlook for 2026 bolsters near-term case
  • Dominant position in advanced chip-printing equipment
  • Healthy profit margins and strong cash resources
  • Export limits and high valuation increase downside risk

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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