The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Missed Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025 — -5.8% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Never rose above the publication price inside the window.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
Progressive’s share price is sitting near a long-term trend line where it has usually bounced 8-12%. A small sale by an executive on 2 Jul spooked some investors, but the company also announced a 11 Jul cash payout that can attract income seekers. Experts think insurance costs are coming down, which could add profit. If past patterns repeat, the stock could return to about $288, or roughly 10 % higher, within three months.
Primary drivers
- Price looks oversold and has often recovered 8-12% from this level.
- Upcoming 11 Jul dividend may draw investors who like steady income.
- Management may report better cost control at early-Aug results.
- Small insider sale seems minor; sell-off appears heavier than facts justify.
How it played out
PGR: the thesis did not play out
Lyra published PGR at $245.93 on 2025-07-03 with an expected gain of 10% over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to an oversold price near a long-term trend line, a planned 11 Jul cash payout, possible better cost control at early-Aug results, and a small insider sale that looked minor against the size of the sell-off.
Inside the window from 2025-07-03 to 2025-10-01, PGR peaked at $245.93 on 2025-07-03. It stayed below the $254.27 target and never reached it. The stock ended at $231.65. The verdict was a miss.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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