Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from July 8, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 6, 2026 — +10.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$422.72 – $437.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$436.27Published — price the day we called it

$491.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$487.47Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$482.30Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 90% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+10.6%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$482.30

last close inside the window, ended October 6, 2026

Peak price

$487.47

peak on October 5, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 8, 2026

Predicted growth

+13%

over the measurement window

Target price

$491.66

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$422.72 – $437.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$436.27

published July 8, 2026

Confidence

79%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Taiwan Semiconductor is a leader at making advanced chips and benefits directly from rising AI chip demand. The company also reports steady profits and has strong cash, which lowers financial risk. Recent geopolitical stress hurt the whole chip group, and short-term price signals look weak, but the company's quality makes a near-term recovery case more plausible versus weaker peers.

Primary drivers

Leading factory role keeps it central to supplying AI chips
Sector-wide selloff left a potential rebound chance for high-quality names
Large cash and low leverage cut the risk of funding problems
Reliable profit delivery makes short-term recovery more believable

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals