Track record · closed signal

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025 — +10.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

JPM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$288.35 Published $317.09 Target $318.97 Window close $320.80 Peak
$282.66 – $286.59Entry zone — fair-value band
$288.35Published — price the day we called it
$317.09Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$320.80Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$318.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

At window close
+10.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.3%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$318.97
last close inside the window, ended November 12, 2025
Peak price
$320.80
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
90

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+11%
over the measurement window
Target price
$317.09
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$282.66 – $286.59
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$288.35
published August 14, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

JPMorgan's price has fallen hard lately, which often snaps back. At the same time, the business looks healthy: investment banking fees rose 36% in 2024, showing strength and leadership. Investor mood is still positive, and short-term pricing looks steadier, so a bounce over the next 1-3 months is reasonable. Big-picture economy and rule changes are risks, so buy in small steps and take profits on strength.

Primary drivers

  • Price fell more than usual recently, which often leads to a short-term rebound
  • Investment-banking fees rose 36% in 2024, showing stronger deal activity
  • Strong industry position draws steady interest and buying from investors
  • Short-term price action looks steadier as markets lean more optimistic

How it played out

JPM: target reached in 90 days

Lyra published JPM on 2025-08-14 at $288.35, with 11% expected growth and a $317.09 target. The thesis pointed to a recent price fall that could rebound, investment-banking fees rising 36% in 2024, JPMorgan's strong industry position, and steadier short-term price action.

Inside the 2025-08-14 to 2025-11-12 window, JPM reached the target. The stock peaked at $320.80 on 2025-11-12, with an 11.3% gain, and the target was reached in 90 days. It ended at $318.97. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter profit of $14.39 billion and earnings per share of $5.07. Revenue was $46.43 billion. The report was dated inside the measurement window, but it was not treated here as the cause of the stock move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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