Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from July 6, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 4, 2026 — +4.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$432.66 – $457.53Entry zone — fair-value band

$453.58Published — price the day we called it

$506.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$474.79Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$472.78Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+4.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$472.78

last close inside the window, ended October 4, 2026

Peak price

$474.79

peak on October 2, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 6, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$506.64

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$432.66 – $457.53

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$453.58

published July 6, 2026

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is the top pure-play chip manufacturer and is well placed to benefit from rising demand for AI chips. Strong profit margins and a solid balance sheet lower the chance of big losses. Recent news about equipment spending supports continued capacity for AI chips, but short-term selling pressure and geopolitical risk mean a cautious stance despite an attractive valuation reset.

Primary drivers

Leading advanced-node manufacturing supports steady AI chip orders
New equipment spending signals continued capacity expansion
Strong balance sheet and healthy margins reduce downside risk
Recent oversold price levels could rebound if selling calms

How it played out

TSM: shares rose 4.7%, but the target was not reached

Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at 453.58, with expected growth of 12% and a target of 506.64. The thesis pointed to advanced-node manufacturing, equipment spending, a strong balance sheet, healthy margins, and the chance of a rebound from oversold levels. It also cited selling pressure and geopolitical risk.

The shares peaked at 474.79 on October 2, a gain of 4.7%. They stayed below the 506.64 target and ended the window at 472.78. The price moved in the expected direction, but the published growth case did not fully play out. This was a partial hit.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of US$40.20 billion and a gross margin of 67.7%. On September 10, it reported August revenue of NT$514,806 million, up 53.3% from a year earlier.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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