Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from August 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$229.95 Published $275.94 Target $244.20 Window close $258.60 Peak
$226.00 – $232.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$229.95Published — price the day we called it
$275.94Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$258.60Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$244.20Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 63% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$258.60
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.5%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$244.20
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 14, 2025 – November 12, 2025

The thesis — published August 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$275.94
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$226.00 – $232.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$229.95
published August 14, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks appealing on small dips because it has been one of the stronger stocks lately, and expanding same-day grocery delivery to 1,000+ cities should lift Prime use and make life harder for rivals. A usual price signal is softer, but the recent average price and strong trading volume suggest pullbacks may get bought. If the market stays somewhat positive, shares could work back toward earlier price areas in about 3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Faster grocery delivery in 1,000+ cities can raise Prime use and loyalty
  • Stock has been a leader lately, with active trading backing the move
  • Investor mood is strong even if a usual price signal looks softer now
  • Top performer status can help if the market stays generally positive

How it played out

AMZN: thesis partly played out but missed the target

Lyra published AMZN at $229.95 on 2025-08-14 for a short-term window ending 2025-11-12. The thesis expected 20% growth and pointed to faster grocery delivery in 1,000+ cities, stronger recent stock leadership, active trading, and generally positive investor mood. It also noted that a usual price signal looked softer.

Inside the window, AMZN rose to a $258.60 peak on 2025-11-03, a 12.5% gain. It stayed below the $275.94 target and never reached it. The stock ended the window at $244.20. The verdict was partial. The direction was right, but the published upside did not fully play out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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