Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — -13.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.24 Published $9.31 Target $7.15 Window close $8.56 Peak
$7.85 – $8.24Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.24Published — price the day we called it
$9.31Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.56Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$7.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 27% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-13.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$7.15
last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026
Peak price
$8.56
peak on July 13, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.31
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.85 – $8.24
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.24
published July 2, 2026
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados looks inexpensive and its profits can improve if sales pick up, with its McDonald's franchise footprint providing steady demand across Latin America. Recent studies show it holding up better than some retail peers. However, profit margins are thin, debt and currency swings create risk, and trading activity is weak, so the rebound case is cautious and short-term.

Primary drivers

  • Low price makes a short-term rebound more likely
  • Recent studies show it holding up better than peers
  • McDonald's franchise model helps steady customer demand
  • Debt levels and currency swings limit confidence

How it played out

ARCO: the rebound thesis missed its target

Lyra published a cautious short-term rebound thesis at $8.24, with expected growth of 14% and a $9.31 target. The thesis pointed to a low price, resilience versus peers, and steady demand from the McDonald's franchise model. It also cited debt and currency swings as risks.

ARCO peaked at $8.56 on July 13, a gain of 3.8%. It never reached the $9.31 target. The shares then fell and ended the window at $7.15 on September 30. The thesis did not play out within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On August 13, Arcos Dorados reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, up 14.3% from the prior year. Systemwide comparable sales rose 15.3%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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