Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from July 2, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 30, 2026 — +0.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$432.66 – $452.55Entry zone — fair-value band

$452.17Published — price the day we called it

$496.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$461.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$456.19Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 21% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+0.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+2.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$456.19

last close inside the window, ended September 30, 2026

Peak price

$461.87

peak on September 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 2, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$496.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$432.66 – $452.55

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$452.17

published July 2, 2026

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the top-quality pick in chips because it makes the most advanced chips, sells well, keeps high profit margins, and has lots of cash and steady earnings. Insider buying adds confidence. Near-term risk comes from AI-chip headlines and the stock trading near highs, so the view is cautious: a short-term rebound candidate with cleaner, limited upside.

Primary drivers

Leader in chip making, likely to benefit from AI demand
Strong cash position makes downside less risky
Recent sector weakness gives a lower entry opportunity
Reliable earnings reduce execution uncertainty

How it played out

TSM: the thesis only partially played out

Lyra published a cautious rebound thesis for TSM on July 2, 2026, with 10% expected growth from a publication price of $452.17. The thesis pointed to advanced chip production, demand for artificial intelligence chips, strong cash, steady earnings, insider buying, and recent sector weakness. It also noted headline risk and the stock's position near its highs.

TSM rose, but the move stayed well short of the $496.05 target. It peaked at $461.87 on September 30, a gain of 2.1%, and ended the window at $456.19. The target was never reached. The rebound direction was right, but the expected gain did not play out. The thesis only partially worked.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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