Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 53 days.
The thesis — published August 14, 2025
TSMC looks appealing after a recent slide because the business remains strong and investor mood is improving. Demand for AI chips is intense, led by Nvidia, so orders for the newest chip lines should stay high. While one pace-of-price gauge still looks soft, other signs suggest the drop is slowing and a rebound is likely. With the market slightly positive and fresh AI spending news, factory use this quarter should remain high.
Primary drivers
- Strong need for top-end chips for AI keeps factory lines busy this year
- Price looks washed out, with several checks pointing to a likely rebound
- Short-term trend is firming even if another signal still seems sluggish
- Recent AI spending plans suggest factories will stay well utilized soon
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 53 days
Lyra published TSM at $237.57 on 2025-08-14 with 27% expected growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to strong demand for top-end chips for artificial intelligence, high factory use, an improving short-term trend, and a price setup that looked washed out after a recent slide.
Inside the window, TSM reached the $299.96 target in 53 days. The stock peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, with a 30.7% peak gain, then ended the window at $289.84 on 2025-11-12. The target was reached. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and lifted its 2025 revenue growth forecast to the mid-30% range. On 2025-10-17, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC was moving up its 2 nm production plans in Arizona after comments from its chief executive officer.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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