Track record · closed signal

Applovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from June 30, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 28, 2026 — -38.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$499.60 Published $599.52 Target $308.24 Window close $576.46 Peak
$470.00 – $505.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$499.60Published — price the day we called it
$599.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$576.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$308.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-38.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+15.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.8%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$308.24
last close inside the window, ended September 28, 2026
Peak price
$576.46
peak on July 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 30, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$599.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$470.00 – $505.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$499.60
published June 30, 2026
Confidence
71%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applovin is growing by using AI to help apps show ads and earn money. Recent Wall Street coverage and stronger demand plus upbeat short-term guidance make the growth story believable. The share price is close to its normal trend, so there is room to move. But signs of weakness in price action, fewer traders participating, and a pricey valuation make this a tactical opportunity with near-term catalysts.

Primary drivers

  • AI ad tools gaining wider use and driving revenue
  • New research and coverage show clearer demand
  • Company guidance points to continued growth
  • Share price sits close to its recent trendline

How it played out

APP: early gain fell short of the target

Lyra published APP at $499.60 with an expected gain of 20% and a target of $599.52. The thesis pointed to wider use of artificial intelligence ad tools, clearer demand in new research, continued growth in company guidance, and a share price near its recent trendline.

The stock peaked at $576.46 on July 2, a gain of 15.4%. It stayed below the target throughout the window. By September 28, it had fallen to $308.24. The early rise supported part of the thesis, but the target was missed and the stock ended well below the publication price. The thesis only partly played out.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of $1,924 million and net income of $1,267 million. It also issued third-quarter revenue guidance of $2,055 million to $2,085 million.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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