Track record · closed signal

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) — closed signal from August 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025 — -10.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

MTCH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$36.57 Published $42.66 Target $32.75 Window close $38.76 Peak
$35.68 – $36.41Entry zone — fair-value band
$36.57Published — price the day we called it
$42.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$32.75Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 33% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-10.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+6.2%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$32.75
last close inside the window, ended November 11, 2025
Peak price
$38.76
peak on August 15, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published August 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$42.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$35.68 – $36.41
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$36.57
published August 13, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Match Group's price has been improving, and buying interest looks stronger than usual. Sales came in higher than expected, even though profit per share missed. A $14M deal with regulators removes a key worry. Investors are upbeat, but the business still lags and cancellations can bite. Consider buying in steps and wait for clear signs, aiming at the next 0-3 months as efforts to earn more per user start to show.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend looks healthier; buying interest is picking up lately
  • Sales were better than expected last quarter, boosting investor mood
  • A $14M agreement with regulators removes a lingering worry for now
  • New features and pricing aim to make more money from each user over time

How it played out

MTCH: the target was not reached

Lyra published MTCH at $36.57 on August 13, 2025. The thesis expected 18% growth toward $42.66 over the short term. It pointed to a healthier price trend, stronger buying interest, better than expected sales, a $14M agreement with regulators, and new features and pricing meant to earn more from each user.

Inside the window, MTCH peaked at $38.76 on August 15, 2025, a 6% gain. It stayed below the $42.66 target and never reached it. By November 11, 2025, it ended at $32.75. The thesis partially played out early, then missed by the close.

What happened during the window

On November 4, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that Match Group posted third-quarter revenue of $914.3 million and profit of $160.8 million. The same report said Hinge paying users rose 17%, while Tinder paying users fell 7%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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