Track record · closed signal

Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) — closed signal from June 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 27, 2026 — -0% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

YMM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.13 Published $9.18 Target $8.13 Window close $9.76 Peak
$7.65 – $8.09Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.13Published — price the day we called it
$9.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$9.76Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.13Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 17 days.

At window close
-0%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$8.13
last close inside the window, ended September 27, 2026
Peak price
$9.76
peak on August 4, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
17

The thesis — published June 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.18
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.65 – $8.09
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.13
published June 29, 2026
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Full Truck Alliance is a higher-risk Chinese ADR that looks cheap compared with some logistics peers and has a solid balance sheet. News is older and freight demand plus negative sentiment toward Chinese ADRs make the outlook fragile, so expected upside is modest despite active trading interest.

Primary drivers

  • Cheaper valuation than comparable logistics companies
  • Strong balance sheet gives financial flexibility
  • Recent results were mostly positive versus expectations
  • Risks from Chinese ADR sentiment and freight cycles remain

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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