Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from June 29, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 27, 2026 — +3.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$240.45 Published $274.11 Target $249.67 Window close $287.20 Peak
$230.00 – $242.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$240.45Published — price the day we called it
$274.11Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$249.67Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close
+3.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+19.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$249.67
last close inside the window, ended September 27, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
35

The thesis — published June 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$274.11
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$230.00 – $242.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$240.45
published June 29, 2026
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon is a mix of online shopping, cloud services, ads and devices. Growth looks steady because cloud and advertising drive profits and retail is getting more efficient. Recent weakness in big tech and worries about AI spending make the picture less clear, but the recent price drop improves potential return versus risk. Insider selling and general market caution keep the view cautious.

Primary drivers

  • Cloud services and ads still generate most profits
  • Better retail efficiency can lift margins over time
  • Recent broad market pullback makes the price more attractive
  • Concerns about AI spending limit upside expectations

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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