Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 29, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 27, 2026 — +2.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$441.37 Published $493.00 Target $450.61 Window close $477.71 Peak
$422.72 – $442.61Entry zone — fair-value band
$441.37Published — price the day we called it
$493.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$477.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$450.61Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 68% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+2.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.2%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+4.4%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$450.61
last close inside the window, ended September 27, 2026
Peak price
$477.71
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 29, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$493.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$422.72 – $442.61
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$441.37
published June 29, 2026
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is positioned as a clear way to benefit from AI chip demand because it makes advanced chips for many customers, reports strong profits, and has a solid balance sheet. Recent sales showed AI demand holding up. The recent price drop looks like a normal pullback, but downward pressure suggests waiting for signs of stabilization over the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • May sales showed steady demand for AI chip production
  • Market leader in making the most advanced chips for customers
  • Strong profit margins and a healthy balance sheet provide resilience
  • Consistent quarterly earnings that back the business quality

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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