Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) — closed signal from August 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published August 13, 2025
Amazon's price has dipped, but the longer uptrend still looks intact. We are looking for a 0-3 month rebound, helped by the rollout of free same-day grocery delivery to 1,000+ cities and a friendlier outlook for interest rates that often helps big companies. Because some signals are still soft and the stock is not cheap, we would add gradually and wait for signs of stronger buying.
Primary drivers
- Price pulled back inside a longer climb, offering a potential near-term pop.
- Free same-day grocery expansion to 1,000+ cities could boost customer use.
- Price strength holds up even with some weak trend signals in the short run.
- Hopes for lower interest rates keep big, high-quality tech names in favor.
How it played out
AMZN: rebound fell short of the target
Lyra published AMZN at 224.64 on 2025-08-13, looking for 18% growth over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a pullback inside a longer climb, free same-day grocery expansion to 1,000+ cities, price strength despite soft short-run trend signals, and hopes for lower interest rates helping large technology names.
Inside the window, AMZN rose to a peak of 258.6 on 2025-11-03, a 15.1% gain. That stayed below the 265.08 target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at 249.1. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the published target.
What happened during the window
On October 30, 2025, AP reported that Amazon posted higher fiscal third-quarter profit and sales, and that Amazon Web Services rose 20%. AP also reported that Amazon gave a cautious fourth-quarter sales outlook.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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