Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from June 26, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 24, 2026 — +8.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$230.79 Published $272.33 Target $249.38 Window close $287.20 Peak
$220.00 – $233.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$230.79Published — price the day we called it
$272.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$249.38Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 35 days.

At window close
+8.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+24.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$249.38
last close inside the window, ended September 24, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
35

The thesis — published June 26, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$272.33
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$220.00 – $233.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$230.79
published June 26, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon looks selective for the next few months because its cloud services, advertising, and AI tools make it less tied to retail ups and downs. A survey showing strong tech spending by big firms helps cloud demand. Tariff news and general tech selling are clear risks. Recent pullback makes the price more attractive, but negative market momentum keeps confidence moderate.

Primary drivers

  • AWS and AI services driving steady cloud sales and infrastructure growth
  • Advertising brings higher-margin revenue and diversifies income
  • Survey evidence suggests enterprises are still spending on cloud services
  • Recent price decline improves potential reward versus the current risk

How it played out

AMZN: target reached in 35 days

Lyra published the AMZN thesis on June 26, 2026, at $230.79. It expected 18% growth to $272.33. The thesis pointed to cloud services, advertising, artificial intelligence tools, continued enterprise cloud spending, and a recent price decline that improved the potential reward relative to risk.

The price reached the target in 35 days. It peaked at $287.20 on August 3, 2026, for a 24.4% gain, then ended the window at $249.38 on September 24, 2026. The published target was reached within the measurement window. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On July 30, 2026, Amazon reported that second-quarter net sales rose 20% year over year and AWS net sales rose 37%. The company also reported 26% year-over-year advertising growth.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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