Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO) — closed signal from August 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$7.26 Published $8.57 Target $7.15 Window close $7.67 Peak
$7.01 – $7.25Entry zone — fair-value band
$7.26Published — price the day we called it
$8.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$7.67Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$7.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$7.67
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$7.15
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
August 13, 2025 – November 11, 2025

The thesis — published August 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$8.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.01 – $7.25
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$7.26
published August 13, 2025
Confidence
67%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados is gaining interest, with recent trading showing lots more people are buying than usual. Last quarter, profit per share beat expectations, and over 60% of sales came from digital channels, a sign of solid execution. Hopes for a U.S. rate cut in September can lift emerging market confidence. Basics are only fair and currency swings add bumps, so we buy in steps and wait for proof the price can improve over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Recent trading shows many more buyers than usual, hinting at an uptrend
  • Over 60% of sales are digital, helping store sales grow and margins hold up
  • Last quarter profit per share beat expectations, lifting investor mood
  • Rising chances of a U.S. rate cut can boost spending in emerging markets

How it played out

ARCO: target was not reached by window end

Lyra published ARCO at $7.26 on 2025-08-13 with a short-term thesis for 20% expected growth. The thesis pointed to unusual buying interest, more than 60% of sales from digital channels, a profit per share beat in the prior quarter, and rising chances of a U.S. rate cut that could help emerging market confidence.

Inside the window, ARCO peaked at $7.67 on 2025-10-28, a 5.6% gain. It stayed below the $8.57 target and never reached it. By 2025-11-11, it ended at $7.15. The thesis partially played out, but the target missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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