Track record · closed signal

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — +7.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

AMZN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$237.66 Published $285.19 Target $254.98 Window close $287.20 Peak
$228.00 – $240.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$237.66Published — price the day we called it
$285.19Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$287.20Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$254.98Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 40 days.

At window close
+7.3%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+20.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.7%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$254.98
last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026
Peak price
$287.20
peak on August 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
40

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$285.19
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$228.00 – $240.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$237.66
published June 24, 2026
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Amazon may get a short-term boost because Prime Day timing could lift sales this quarter. Shares pulled back and look oversold, but strong businesses like AWS, advertising, and efficient fulfillment still help profits grow. Some insiders are cautious and market momentum is negative, so conviction is moderate despite an attractive near-term risk/reward.

Primary drivers

  • Prime Day timing should help sales in the current quarter
  • AWS and ads drive higher-margin revenue growth
  • Recent results show improving profit leverage in operations
  • Price weakness gives a clear setup for a potential rebound

How it played out

AMZN: target reached in 40 days

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 20% growth from $237.66. The thesis pointed to Prime Day timing, higher-margin growth from AWS and advertising, improving operating profit leverage, and efficient fulfillment. It also cited the recent price weakness as a setup for a rebound, while noting cautious insiders and negative market momentum.

The shares reached the $285.19 target in 40 days. They peaked at $287.20 on August 3, a 20.8% gain, then ended the window at $254.98 on September 22. The target was reached inside the measurement window, so the short-term thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On July 30, Amazon reported second-quarter net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20% year over year. It also reported AWS net sales of $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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