Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 24, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 22, 2026 — +4.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$417.74 – $435.65Entry zone — fair-value band

$434.20Published — price the day we called it

$493.65Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$477.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$452.00Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 71% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+4.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$452.00

last close inside the window, ended September 22, 2026

Peak price

$477.71

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 24, 2026

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$493.65

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$417.74 – $435.65

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$434.20

published June 24, 2026

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is a top chip maker that benefits from being a key supplier for AI and other big markets. Leadership in advanced chipmaking, healthy profits, and lots of cash make the company more resilient than many peers. Recent headlines are mostly about the industry but still point to continued investment in AI infrastructure, so modest near-term upside is likely.

Primary drivers

Leading chipmaking at the most advanced technology nodes supports AI demand
High profit margins and large cash balances help weather slowdowns
Sector headlines suggest ongoing investment in AI infrastructure
The price trend is cleaner than many chip peers, adding relative stability

How it played out

TSM: rose 10% but missed the target

On June 24, Lyra published a short-term thesis for TSM at 434.20, with 14% expected growth and a 493.65 target. The thesis pointed to leadership in advanced chipmaking, demand tied to artificial intelligence, healthy profit margins, large cash balances, continued infrastructure investment, and a cleaner price trend than many chip peers.

TSM reached its window high of 477.71 on June 30, a 10% gain. It never reached the 493.65 target. The price ended the window at 452 on September 22, above the publication price but below both the peak and target. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On August 10, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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