Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) — closed signal from August 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on November 11, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 41 days.
The thesis — published August 13, 2025
TSMC is the key factory making the most advanced chips used for AI. A recent update suggests its big Arizona project may avoid new US chip tariffs, lowering a major worry. The company's sales pipeline and investor mood stay strong, and its recent average price is trending better as the stock trades in a steadier range. Buying on small pullbacks targets a 0-3 month rise as AI orders stay firm and customer funding remains in place.
Primary drivers
- Tariff relief likely for Arizona plant, cutting policy and cost worries.
- Key maker of top AI chips where demand and pricing remain strong.
- Recent average price is improving as shares hold a steadier range.
- Big customers have funding ready, keeping orders coming this year.
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 41 days
Lyra published TSM at $244.03 on 2025-08-13 with a short-term call for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to likely tariff relief for the Arizona plant, strong demand for advanced artificial intelligence chips, an improving recent average price, steadier trading, and funded customer orders.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $281.42 target in 41 days. It later peaked at $310.53 on 2025-10-16, a 27.3% gain. By 2025-11-11, it ended at $290.39. The thesis played out. The price reached the target and stayed above it at the close of the measurement window.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-16, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue of $33.10 billion and net income of NT$452.30 billion. On the same date, AP reported that Taiwan had rejected a U.S. proposal to split chip production 50-50 between Taiwan and the U.S.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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