Track record · closed signal

International Business Machines (IBM) — closed signal from June 23, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 21, 2026 — -11% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

IBM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$251.38 – $262.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$260.55Published — price the day we called it

$287.15Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$309.58Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$231.93Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 8 days.

At window close

-11%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+18.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.7%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$231.93

last close inside the window, ended September 21, 2026

Peak price

$309.58

peak on July 7, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 23, 2026

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$287.15

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$251.38 – $262.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$260.55

published June 23, 2026

Confidence

72%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

IBM is being watched because it acts like a defensive tech company and just got a notable bank upgrade that could lift the stock in the next 0-3 months. Results have been steady and the stock looks oversold after a sharp drop. High debt, slow organic growth, and weak price momentum limit confidence compared with higher-conviction tech picks.

Primary drivers

Bank upgrade lifts near-term sentiment
Cloud and AI services drive steady enterprise demand
Defensive stock behavior helps in volatile markets
High debt and slower growth limit upside potential

How it played out

IBM: target reached in 8 days before a late reversal

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 11% growth from $260.55. The thesis pointed to a bank upgrade, steady enterprise demand for cloud and artificial intelligence services, and defensive stock behavior. It also cited high debt, slower growth, and weak price momentum as limits on the upside.

IBM reached the $287.15 target in 8 days. It later peaked at $309.58 on July 7, a gain of 18.8%. The rise then reversed, and the stock ended the window at $231.93. The thesis played out within the window, though the gain did not hold.

What happened during the window

On July 22, 2026, IBM reported second-quarter results and updated its full-year expectations. On August 26, 2026, IBM announced that it had completed its acquisition of HRL Laboratories.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All IBM signals