Track record · closed signal

Xp Inc (XP) — closed signal from June 22, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 20, 2026 — +25.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.25 – $16.25Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.98Published — price the day we called it

$19.18Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$20.01Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 72 days.

At window close

+25.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+29.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$20.01

last close inside the window, ended September 20, 2026

Peak price

$20.75

peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 22, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$19.18

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.25 – $16.25

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.98

published June 22, 2026

Confidence

74%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP looks like a value play near-term because the business is profitable and the stock trades cheaply relative to peers, so it could re-rate if appetite for emerging-market financials returns. The recent price drop creates an opportunistic entry, but low trading volume, Brazil macro uncertainty, and balance-sheet questions keep conviction moderate.

Primary drivers

Valuation shows the stock trades at a meaningful discount
Strong profitability for a Brazilian financial platform
Early positive price action forming near trend support
Emerging-market and balance-sheet risks limit conviction

How it played out

XP: target reached in 72 days

Lyra published XP at $15.98 with an expected gain of 20% and a $19.18 target. The thesis pointed to a discounted valuation, strong profitability, and early positive price action near trend support. It also cited low trading volume, uncertainty in Brazil, and balance-sheet risk as reasons for moderate conviction.

XP reached the target after 72 days. The shares peaked at $20.75 on September 3, a gain of 29.8% from the publication price. They ended the window at $20.01, still above the target. The thesis played out in full.

What happened during the window

On August 17, 2026, XP reported second-quarter results, including gross revenue of R$5.06 billion and net income of R$1.38 billion. The same day, the company announced that it would cancel treasury shares.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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