Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR (TSM) — closed signal from July 3, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 1, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 81 days.
The thesis — published July 3, 2025
TSMC sits at the center of the rush to build computer chips for artificial-intelligence equipment. After the firm said sales from AI chips tripled this year and could double again next year, the stock reached its highest price in a year on 3 Jul. Even with that jump, shares cost about 20 times yearly profit, cheaper than many of its customers, so there is room to climb. More buyers than usual and an upcoming September event that may reveal a next-generation 2-nanometer plan could draw in even more interest.
Primary drivers
- AI chip sales tripled this year and may double again next, brightening growth
- Unusually heavy buying suggests investors are steadily building positions
- Stock at 20× earnings while many customers at 40×, so price could play catch-up
- Sept symposium may unveil 2-nm progress, a clear trigger for new investor interest
How it played out
TSM: target reached in 81 days
Lyra published TSM at 233.43 on 2025-07-03 with an 18% expected gain and a 273.84 target. The thesis pointed to chip demand for artificial intelligence equipment, chip sales tied to that demand, unusually heavy buying, a 20 times earnings multiple, and a September event that might show 2-nanometer progress.
Inside the window, TSM reached the target after 81 days. The peak was 289.70 on 2025-10-01, with a 24.1% gain. It ended at 287.69. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On July 18, 2025, Tom's Hardware reported that TSMC had posted second-quarter revenue of $30.07 billion and net income of $12.825 billion. The report also said TSMC confirmed that N2 was on track for volume production in the second half of 2025.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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