Track record · closed signal

Vista Oil Gas ADR (VIST) — closed signal from June 19, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 17, 2026 — +6.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

VIST price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$65.00 – $69.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$68.55Published — price the day we called it

$82.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$79.77Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$73.31Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 82% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+6.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+16.4%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$73.31

last close inside the window, ended September 17, 2026

Peak price

$79.77

peak on September 10, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 19, 2026

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$82.26

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$65.00 – $69.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$68.55

published June 19, 2026

Confidence

69%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Vista looks attractive because it trades cheaply, earns well on its operations, and is growing production. Recent analyst notes calling it undervalued add to interest. Still, oil has softened as geopolitical pressure eased, and the company has missed earnings at times and has limited balance-sheet flexibility, so the opportunity is cautious rather than certain.

Primary drivers

Cheap stock price gives room for recovery
Rising production and margins support growth
Recent analyst attention increases market interest
Lower oil and earnings misses are clear downside risks

How it played out

VIST: shares rose 16.4%, but the target was missed

Lyra published VIST at 68.55, expecting a 20% rise to 82.26 over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to a cheap share price, rising production and margins, and recent analyst attention. It also identified lower oil prices and earnings misses as downside risks.

VIST rose to 79.77 on September 10, a peak gain of 16.4%. That was below the 82.26 target, which it never reached. It ended the window at 73.31, above the 68.55 publication price but well off the peak. The thesis partially played out. The shares rose, but the expected 20% gain did not occur.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, Vista reported Q2 2026 total production of 156,061 boe/d, up 32% from Q2 2025.

Vista Energy Q2 2026 Results

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All VIST signals