Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 18, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 16, 2026 — -6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$427.69 – $445.59Entry zone — fair-value band

$446.36Published — price the day we called it

$489.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$477.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$417.72Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 70% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-6.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$417.72

last close inside the window, ended September 16, 2026

Peak price

$477.71

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 18, 2026

Predicted growth

+10%

over the measurement window

Target price

$489.67

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$427.69 – $445.59

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$446.36

published June 18, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is the clearest way to hold semiconductor manufacturing for the next few months. Strong AI demand, high profit margins, steady earnings, and insider buying support its quality. A recent mention as a top contributor to a large manager shows institutional relevance. Market sentiment has cooled and price momentum needs to recover.

Primary drivers

Leader in making chips for AI with steady customer demand
High profit margins and a history of reliable earnings
Insiders buying shares and a solid balance sheet
Recent institutional attention raises market relevance

How it played out

TSM: price rose 7%, but the target was not reached

Lyra published TSM at 446.36 on June 18, with 10% expected growth and a 489.67 target. The thesis pointed to chipmaking demand tied to artificial intelligence, high margins, reliable earnings, insider buying, a solid balance sheet, and recent institutional attention. It also noted cooler sentiment and the need for price momentum to recover.

The price peaked at 477.71 on June 30, a 7% gain, but stayed below the target and never reached it. By September 16, it had fallen to 417.72, below the publication price and the entry zone. The thesis partially played out early, then missed its stated objective over the full window.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25.

TSMC Reports Second Quarter EPS of NT$27.25

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals