Track record · closed signal

Applovin Corp (APP) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — -35.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

APP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$515.60 Published $608.41 Target $331.46 Window close $576.46 Peak
$490.00 – $520.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$515.60Published — price the day we called it
$608.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$576.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$331.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-35.7%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.8%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$331.46
last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026
Peak price
$576.46
peak on July 2, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$608.41
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$490.00 – $520.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$515.60
published June 17, 2026
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Applovin is a fast-growing software company that makes tools to help mobile apps sell and show ads more efficiently using AI. The stock jumped when Treasury yields dropped, showing it moves with interest-rate sentiment. Fundamentals look solid, but weak trading volume, some insider selling, and short-term negative momentum mean cautious optimism for the next few months.

Primary drivers

  • AI tools help apps earn more and protect profit margins
  • Lower Treasury yields recently helped this type of growth stock
  • Strong software profitability makes valuation easier to justify
  • Low trading volume and insider selling increase timing risk

How it played out

APP: early rise fell short of the target

Lyra published the APP thesis at $515.60 with an expected 18% rise to $608.41. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence tools that could help apps earn more, strong software profitability, and support from lower Treasury yields. It also flagged low trading volume, insider selling, and negative short-term momentum as timing risks.

APP rose to $576.46 on July 2, a peak gain of 11.8%, but never reached $608.41. It ended the window at $331.46 on September 15. The early rise captured part of the expected move, but it did not last. The thesis only partially played out.

What happened during the window

On August 5, 2026, AppLovin reported second-quarter revenue of $1.924 billion, up 53% from a year earlier, and net income of $1.267 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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