Track record · closed signal

Xp Inc (XP) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — +21.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$16.02 Published $18.90 Target $19.53 Window close $20.75 Peak
$15.40 – $16.20Entry zone — fair-value band
$16.02Published — price the day we called it
$18.90Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$20.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$19.53Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 76 days.

At window close
+21.9%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+29.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+2.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$19.53
last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026
Peak price
$20.75
peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
76

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$18.90
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$15.40 – $16.20
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$16.02
published June 17, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

XP is a Brazilian financial firm that looks cheaper than many peers and just announced buybacks and dividends, which sends cash back to shareholders. Its business makes good profits, which helps the case. Still, risks tied to Brazil, the currency, credit conditions, and modest organic growth mean the opportunity is selective rather than broadly safe.

Primary drivers

  • Share buybacks and dividends give a clear cash-return reason to own
  • Lower price relative to peers could lift the stock if Brazil risk eases
  • Profitable investment platform differentiates XP from competitors
  • Country and currency risks limit conviction despite the positives

How it played out

XP: target reached in 76 days and exceeded

Lyra published the XP thesis on June 17 at 16.02, with expected growth of 18% and a target of 18.90. The thesis pointed to buybacks and dividends, a lower valuation than peers, and a profitable investment platform. It also cited Brazil, currency, credit, and modest organic growth as risks.

The price reached the 18.90 target in 76 days. It peaked at 20.75 on September 3, a gain of 29.5%. XP ended the window on September 15 at 19.53, still above the target. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price goal.

What happened during the window

On August 17, XP reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted net income of R$1.4 billion, up 5% year over year. It also reported total client assets of R$1,535 billion, up 12% year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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