Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 17, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 15, 2026 — -5.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$417.74 – $437.63Entry zone — fair-value band

$436.04Published — price the day we called it

$487.05Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$477.71Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$412.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 80% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-5.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$412.64

last close inside the window, ended September 15, 2026

Peak price

$477.71

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 17, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$487.05

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$417.74 – $437.63

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$436.04

published June 17, 2026

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the strongest way to own semiconductor manufacturing exposure because it makes chips for AI, phones, and powerful computers. Recent industry updates suggest factories will spend more, which helps TSM. Short-term price action is still settling, but the company's strong profits, cash position, and consistent results make the near-term outlook constructive.

Primary drivers

Rising demand for AI and high-performance computing boosts advanced chip production
Equipment upgrades at fabs point to steady factory investment
Healthy profits and a strong balance sheet limit downside risk
Consistent earnings delivery increases confidence in near-term demand

How it played out

TSM: the 12% target was never reached

Lyra published TSM at 436.04 on June 17, with 12% expected growth and a 487.05 target. The thesis pointed to demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, factory equipment upgrades, healthy profits, a strong balance sheet, and consistent earnings.

TSM rose to 477.71 on June 30, a 9.6% peak gain, but never reached 487.05. It ended the window on September 15 at 412.64, below the 436.04 publication price. The thesis partially played out because the shares moved toward the target early, but the full expected gain did not arrive and the advance did not hold.

What happened during the window

On July 16, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and net income of NT$706.56 billion. On September 10, it reported August revenue of NT$514.81 billion, up 53.3% from August 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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