Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — -0.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$435.24 Published $487.47 Target $433.24 Window close $479.00 Peak
$418.00 – $438.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$435.24Published — price the day we called it
$487.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$433.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 84% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
-0.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+10.1%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+1.5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$433.24
last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026
Peak price
$479.00
peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$487.47
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$418.00 – $438.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$435.24
published June 15, 2026
Confidence
83%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a steady leader that makes advanced chips used in AI, phones, servers, cars, and factories. Strong profit margins, insiders buying, and a solid balance sheet make the business resilient even when excitement fades. Recent easing of regional risks helped tech stocks broadly, but price action suggests caution-better on measured pullbacks than chasing gains. Growth looks moderate but reliable.

Primary drivers

  • Ongoing demand for chips that power AI systems keeps factory lines busy
  • Improved investor mood in Asian tech after regional tensions eased
  • Healthy profits and a strong balance sheet set it apart from peers
  • Reliable earnings results provide steadier exposure to semiconductors

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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