Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 15, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 13, 2026 — -0.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$418.00 – $438.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$435.24Published — price the day we called it

$487.47Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$433.24Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 84% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

-0.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+10.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+1.5%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$433.24

last close inside the window, ended September 13, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 15, 2026

Predicted growth

+12%

over the measurement window

Target price

$487.47

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$418.00 – $438.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$435.24

published June 15, 2026

Confidence

83%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSMC is a steady leader that makes advanced chips used in AI, phones, servers, cars, and factories. Strong profit margins, insiders buying, and a solid balance sheet make the business resilient even when excitement fades. Recent easing of regional risks helped tech stocks broadly, but price action suggests caution-better on measured pullbacks than chasing gains. Growth looks moderate but reliable.

Primary drivers

Ongoing demand for chips that power AI systems keeps factory lines busy
Improved investor mood in Asian tech after regional tensions eased
Healthy profits and a strong balance sheet set it apart from peers
Reliable earnings results provide steadier exposure to semiconductors

How it played out

TSM: price rose 10.1%, but the target was missed

Lyra published TSM at 435.24 with an expected gain of 12%. The thesis pointed to demand for chips used in artificial intelligence systems, improved sentiment toward Asian technology stocks, healthy profits, a strong balance sheet, and reliable earnings. It expected moderate, steady growth.

The price reached 479 on June 30, a peak gain of 10.1%. That remained below the 487.47 target, which was never reached. By September 13, the price had fallen to 433.24. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose close to the target, but it ended below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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