Track record · closed signal

XP Inc. (XP) — closed signal from June 12, 2026

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 10, 2026 — +26.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

XP price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$15.00 – $16.10Entry zone — fair-value band

$15.74Published — price the day we called it

$18.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$20.75Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$19.97Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 80 days.

At window close

+26.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+31.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+2.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$19.97

last close inside the window, ended September 10, 2026

Peak price

$20.75

peak on September 3, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published June 12, 2026

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$18.57

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$15.00 – $16.10

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$15.74

published June 12, 2026

Confidence

67%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

XP looks like a value play: the stock trades cheaply and the company is returning cash to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, which helps the case for a price recovery. Weak balance-sheet comfort, light trading volume, and sensitivity to Brazil's economy make the setup fragile; the rebound depends on stability in the local market.

Primary drivers

Share buybacks and dividends boost returns to shareholders
Low valuation means bigger upside if sentiment improves
More fees and steady revenue mix can steady earnings
Exposure to Brazil's market keeps overall risk higher

How it played out

XP: target reached in 80 days

Lyra published XP as a short-term value thesis on June 12, from 15.74, with expected growth of 18%. The thesis pointed to buybacks and dividends, a low valuation, and a steadier revenue mix. It also flagged weak balance-sheet comfort, light trading volume, and exposure to Brazil's market as risks.

The shares reached the 18.57 target in 80 days and peaked at 20.75 on September 3. The peak gain was 31.9%. They ended the window at 19.97, still above the target and the 15.74 publication price. The thesis played out and exceeded its stated price objective within the measurement window.

What happened during the window

On August 17, 2026, XP reported second-quarter results, including total client assets of R$1,535 billion and total net inflow of R$28 billion. The same day, XP announced that it would cancel treasury shares.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All XP signals