Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — -6.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.66 Published $9.96 Target $8.09 Window close $8.99 Peak
$8.16 – $8.65Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.66Published — price the day we called it
$9.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 24% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-6.5%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+3.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$8.09
last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026
Peak price
$8.99
peak on June 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$8.16 – $8.65
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.66
published June 11, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados looks like a relatively straightforward consumer idea because recent restaurant results and more people using its digital loyalty program are boosting sales and cash flow. Its stock price is low compared with peers, which could help if trends hold. Still, exposure to Latin American currencies and company debt means short-term outcomes are uncertain and need steady traffic to improve.

Primary drivers

  • Latest company update showed improving restaurant sales and cash flow
  • Better digital loyalty engagement should help bring customers back
  • Relatively low stock valuation could rise if trends continue
  • Currency swings and debt keep the outlook cautious

How it played out

ARCO: the 16% growth thesis did not play out

Lyra published a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to improving restaurant sales and cash flow, stronger digital loyalty engagement, and a relatively low valuation. It also flagged currency swings and debt as risks.

ARCO peaked at $8.99 on June 15, a 3.9% gain from the published price of $8.66. It never reached the $9.96 target. The shares ended the window at $8.09 on September 9. The thesis missed.

What happened during the window

On August 13, 2026, Arcos Dorados reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion and a 15.3% rise in systemwide comparable sales.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All ARCO signals