Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — +3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$405.00 – $425.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$419.80Published — price the day we called it

$482.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$435.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$435.36

last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$482.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$405.00 – $425.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$419.80

published June 11, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest way to own advanced chip manufacturing for the next few months. Demand from AI and high-performance computing is driving orders, earnings have been steady, and the balance sheet is solid. A report that Google may use TSMC for a major AI chip underscores longer-term importance. Prices have pulled back, so the setup looks like a measured chance to recover if the sector calms.

Primary drivers

Higher demand for advanced chips used in AI and big servers
Google report highlights TSMC's long-term importance
Reliable earnings and a strong balance sheet support stability
Recent price drop could allow a controlled rebound if volatility eases

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals