Track record · closed signal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) — closed signal from June 11, 2026

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 9, 2026 — +3.7% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

TSM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$405.00 – $425.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$419.80Published — price the day we called it

$482.76Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$479.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$435.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 94% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+3.7%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+14.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$435.36

last close inside the window, ended September 9, 2026

Peak price

$479.00

peak on June 30, 2026 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published June 11, 2026

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$482.76

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$405.00 – $425.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$419.80

published June 11, 2026

Confidence

84%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

TSM is the clearest way to own advanced chip manufacturing for the next few months. Demand from AI and high-performance computing is driving orders, earnings have been steady, and the balance sheet is solid. A report that Google may use TSMC for a major AI chip underscores longer-term importance. Prices have pulled back, so the setup looks like a measured chance to recover if the sector calms.

Primary drivers

Higher demand for advanced chips used in AI and big servers
Google report highlights TSMC's long-term importance
Reliable earnings and a strong balance sheet support stability
Recent price drop could allow a controlled rebound if volatility eases

How it played out

TSM: the thesis partly played out

On June 11, Lyra published a short-term rebound thesis from a price of 419.80, with expected growth of 15% and a target of 482.76. The thesis pointed to demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence and large servers, a report involving Google, reliable earnings, a strong balance sheet, and the recent price drop.

The price rose to 479 on June 30, a peak gain of 14.1%. It stayed below the 482.76 target, so the target was never reached. TSM ended the window at 435.36. The rebound happened, but the full expected gain did not. The thesis partly played out.

What happened during the window

On July 16, 2026, TSMC reported second-quarter revenue of NT$1,270.38 billion and diluted earnings per share of NT$27.25. On August 10, 2026, it reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7% from July 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All TSM signals