Track record · closed signal

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) — closed signal from June 10, 2026

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 8, 2026 — -1.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARCO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$8.29 Published $9.70 Target $8.18 Window close $8.99 Peak
$7.87 – $8.36Entry zone — fair-value band
$8.29Published — price the day we called it
$9.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$8.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$8.18Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 47% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-1.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+8.4%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.9%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$8.18
last close inside the window, ended September 8, 2026
Peak price
$8.99
peak on June 15, 2026 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published June 10, 2026

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$9.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$7.87 – $8.36
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$8.29
published June 10, 2026
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arcos Dorados benefits from operating the McDonald's brand across Latin America and currently looks cheap compared with its fundamentals. The company's latest transcript shows restaurants working well, but exposure to local currencies, existing debt, and irregular profit history add real risk. The stock appears more washed out than broken, so a selective three-month recovery is plausible if customer demand stays steady and profit margins improve.

Primary drivers

  • McDonald's system gives resilience and a known brand in Latin America
  • Recent company updates show steady restaurant sales and execution
  • Relatively low valuation leaves room for a rebound if demand holds
  • Currency swings and leverage make the recovery case selective

How it played out

ARCO: the 18% recovery thesis only partially played out

Lyra published ARCO at $8.29 with an expected 18% recovery over three months. The thesis pointed to the McDonald's system and steady restaurant sales as support. It also cited a relatively low valuation, while currency swings, debt, and an irregular profit history made the case selective.

The price rose to a peak of $8.99 on June 15, an 8.4% gain. It never reached the $9.70 target. By September 8, it had fallen to $8.18, below the publication price. The early rebound partially matched the thesis, but the full recovery did not play out.

What happened during the window

On August 13, 2026, Arcos Dorados reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, up 14.3% from the prior-year period. It also reported that comparable sales rose 15.3%.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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